From the depths of Druidic past to the pragmatics of modern agriculture, wintertime has come to represent rebirth and renewal. In the furthest reaches of history, the darkness that marked the season impelled people inward, causing them to clutch closely to campfire and each other through long nights of uncertain futures. In more modern times, the dormancy of winter provided a time of planning and preparation as farmers and others took stock of the year's successes and failures and sketched out their map for success in the coming year.

This pattern of inwardness and reflection appears as a regular theme in art and literature, and so it may in brewing. We are never far from archetypal truths. Recognizing them as they enter our lives is an important first step in the search for knowledge and wisdom. As we approach the shortest and darkest day of the year, time beckons us to reflect on the past, present, and future of our lives and our avocations as brewers.

Specialty brewing is facing a hard winter season -- one not marked by calendar dates, spiced ales, or barleywines, but one marked by an inner need to regroup and re-examine. We are at a pivotal time in our craft's evolutionary development.

In the commercial sector, large microbreweries with household names are making news for failures and closures while others with reputations for hard-core craft values sell to larger interests. Start-ups are becoming more business savvy and better funded. People who started breweries five years ago with a few dollars and plenty of passion have discovered the importance of capital funding, good equipment, solid training, effective marketing, and careful business management. New players are generally entering with more of these assets in place even before they break ground. Business is finally catching up with brewing.

Meanwhile, the market for craft beers appears to be contracting, though such appearance is more illusion than reality. The Big Boys now produce all-malt beers in classic styles at prices well under those of true craft brewed beers. The net effect is to diminish the craft brewers' portion of the very real growth in demand for beers other than light American lager.

Further, the rush to open new micros seems to have topped out. Growth has slowed (from "staggeringly fast" to merely "impressive"), and increased competition for shelf space and tap accounts has taught many micros the importance of marketing and distribution savvy -- and even forced some out of business. Clearly, the craft brewing industry needs a hard look at itself. In general, industry in North America has a penchant for consolidation and mass production. Those same forces press on craft brewing as well. The established Big Boys' breweries are trying to absorb craft brewing's most marketable qualities. New start-ups and acquisitions now look for economies of scale. And craft breweries are getting more competitive, often reducing the game to a sparring match on price, which means smaller margins and the need for more production and even more sales. A vicious cycle begins.

These trends bode ill for craft values. Home brewers inspired and led the revolution 20 years ago with passion for quality and experimentation. Their presence remains an influence on every craft brewery and consumer today, even if it seems quiet relative to the public attention given commercial brewers. To keep craft brewing vital and alive, home brewers may once again have to assume a leadership role. The new MCAB national competition (see page 14) presents one ray of hope in a spectrum of possibilities.

There has never been a winter that did not give way to spring. The rebirth and renewal typical of the coming season gives us reason to look ahead with optimism and hope. If Germany can stably support some 2,000 breweries with integrity and breadth of style, North America can and should do so, too -- if not more. After all, we've got the world's most active and demanding home brewers available to move us all ahead.

Stephen Mallery
Publisher